Bob Dylan was prophetically correct when he wrote and sang, “The Times They Are a-changin.”
Everything seems to be changing; and changing faster than ever. What makes a new church, or revitalized church, grow and flourish is very different now than it was a decade or two ago.
Cary Nieuwhof brings his study and wisdom to the topic of what can make church planting successful from a biblical perspective, and how leaders need to change their methods and approach to see it happen.
Much to ponder and pray about in this post.
Guest Post by Carey Nieuwhof
Church planting is one of the most challenging things you can do as a pastor… but it can also be one of the most rewarding. And like almost anything in leadership, church planting is changing as culture changes. Some of the methods that worked to plant and grow a church a decade or two ago are not nearly as effective as they once were. In this post, I’ll outline five trends that are shaping the future of church planting, but before that, let’s do a brief overview of church planting and look at a few key statistics.
Church Planting in the Bible Vs. Church Planting Today
Church planting has been an integral part of Christian mission since the early days of Christianity. The apostle Paul’s missionary journeys, as recorded in the New Testament, serve as the earliest examples of intentional church planting. Throughout history, the spread of Christianity has been closely tied to the establishment of new congregations. In the modern era, church planting has roots in the Reformation, colonial America, and Protestantism in the West.
It gained renewed focus in the late 20th century when missiologists and church leaders recognized the effectiveness of starting new churches to evangelize and reach unchurched populations. The late 20th and early 21st centuries saw a surge in church planting initiatives, particularly in urban areas and among younger leaders. This period was characterized by innovative approaches, including seeker-sensitive models, multi-site churches, and culturally contextualized congregations.
4 Surprising Statistics About Church Planting
You hear about new church plants all the time, but how are we really doing when it comes to church planting? Are we planting enough? Too many? What about church revitalization?
To understand how church planting is evolving, here are five surprising statistics you should consider if you’re thinking about planting a church.
- Church Plants Vs. Church Closures: In the United States, approximately 5,000-10,000 churches close each year (yes, that’s a wide range, but it’s difficult to get accurate numbers), and 6,000 new churches are planted (according to new, yet-to-be-published research by Warren Bird). That leaves us with a potential gap of up to 4000 churches each year — a stat that’s a bit scary to look at.
- More Church Plants Are Needed: It’s estimated that 8,000-12,000 new churches need to be planted annually to keep up with population growth and to outpace church closures.
- 66% of Church Plants are Non-Viable after Four Years: According to Ed Stetzer and Warren Bird in their book Viral Churches, after four years, church plants split three ways. One-third have closed, one-third still exist but are not self-supporting, and the final third of churches have become self-supporting and independent. The tricky part is the one-third that still exists but are not self-supporting—when you dig a little deeper, you see that they’re often struggling. So that means as many as two-thirds of church plants are non-viable or struggling after four years.
- The Higher the Launch Funding, the Higher the Attendance: The average church plant launches with $135,000 of funding and has between 100 and 200 attendees. Churches that launch with an average of $322,000 of seed money have an average attendance of 500+ at launch. The higher the funding, the higher the attendance seems to be. If you launch with $70,000, your attendance is likely to be 50 or less. (That being said, there are a number of free church growth strategies that, in my opinion, every church should be leveraging.)
5 Trends Shaping the Future of Church Planting
1. Church Planting is No Longer “Just Add Water Approach”
From the early 2000s through to the mid-2010s, evangelical churches had a pretty successful ‘formula’ for doing church. Have a decent, modern band that sings the same worship songs every other growing church is singing, have a relevant, dynamic communicator preaching, and have a vibrant kids (and perhaps student) ministry. Add upbeat serving teams and small groups, and you’re good to go.
Almost every growing church followed that formula. Except by the late 2010s, it was no longer producing the kind of growth that it once did. For a while, attractional church was cool, and that attracted its own kind of crowd. But as every church copied the formula, the uniqueness withered. In a constantly changing culture, it’s harder than ever for churches to be cutting-edge because cutting-edge keeps changing. “Cool” church just doesn’t cut it anymore, which you’ll see in the following trends.
2. Authenticity is Resonating More than Ever
When planting a church, It’s not like the answer is to have a bad band, poor sound, a boring communicator, and disorganized ministry. Not at all. Launching with strength in all areas is still the right approach. The difference is that sometimes all the hype can come off as slick or disingenuous. And that’s not reaching the most marketed-to generation in history, Gen Z. Gen Z is looking for hope over hype, for real over-rehearsed, and for authenticity over performance.
Think of it as a critical tonal shift more than anything. As we’ve seen in the revivals across college campuses and in the next generation, they’re hungering for a new kind of church. If you’re launching and hoping to reach the next generation, just know that at least when it comes to church, authenticity, hope, mission, and community are the new cool — it’s one of the unique advantages you can leverage when you’re a small church plant.
3. Slow is Your Friend
The irony is that it’s easier and faster than ever to launch a church. Technology has made many of the hurdles church planters used to encounter—gathering people, funding, and building a team—the easiest it’s ever been. There’s a saying in boating that slow is your friend. As a boater myself, I can vouch for the fact that any time I’m facing a tricky docking or maneuver in the water, the faster I go, the more dangerous and worse it gets. Similarly, in church planting, slow is your friend.
Sure, you can launch a church in months, but to take the time to get buy-in from key leaders, to build a large and solid core, to align people around a carefully thought-through and prayed-over mission, vision and strategy, to raise more than adequate funds, and to think through the complexity of what you’re doing is simply wise. The firmer the foundation, the more likely it is your church will stand.
4. The Core Is More Important Than Ever
In the same way that churches that raise more initial money launch bigger and last longer, it’s also true that churches that build the largest core have the largest and most stable launches. A surprisingly accurate rule of thumb is that you will have three attendees on your opening Sunday for every core team member. In other words, if you have a committed core of 25 volunteers, donors, and people who are bought in, you’ll likely see around 75 people on your opening Sunday. If you have a solid core of 75 committed volunteers, donors, and bought-in people, you’ll likely see around 225 people on opening Sunday.
And a core of 200 will produce a crowd of about 600. A large launch matters in part because your opening Sunday will be the biggest Sunday you have for a while. Your opening attracts well-wishers, family members, and people from other churches who are simply there to see what’s going on. As quickly as the second Sunday, your opening numbers might shrink by 30-50% and, in the first few months, might dip even a little more than 50%.
So if you have 75 on opening Sunday, your church might soon be down to 35-40. And that makes it hard to muster momentum and hope. Conversely, if your opening Sunday brought 250 people, you might still have 125+, which is a solid base to build on. The bottom line? The more solid your core, the more solid your church. So take the time to build as large and stable a core as much as you can.
5. Church Planting Is No Longer a Solo Sport (Unless You Want It To Be)
Loneliness is a problem for leaders as it is. For church planters, it can lead to an even deeper sense of isolation.
The good news is there are a host of church planting networks and organizations that exist to support church planters. Better yet, they can vet your suitability for planting, help you build a strong core and fundraise, and provide other training and support. Whether it’s your denomination that helps you, the wide range of networks like ARC, Acts 29 or New Thing, or even movements like Exponential, you’re only alone in church planting these days if you choose to be. And wise leaders choose not to be.
Conclusion
The church planting landscape is changing once again. The old formulas that once guaranteed success are no longer enough. Authenticity, careful preparation, and a strong core team have become more critical than ever. If you’re considering planting a church, now is the time to rethink your strategy, ensuring that it resonates deeply with the communities you hope to reach.
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